Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during November 2025, identified during October
Disinformation poses a persistent challenge in the Western Balkans, as harmful campaigns often target key events in order to deepen divisions, undermine trust in democratic institutions, and shake support for Euro-Atlantic integration.
Disinformation poses a persistent challenge in the Western Balkans, as harmful campaigns often target key events in order to deepen divisions, undermine trust in democratic institutions, and shake support for Euro-Atlantic integration.
The Metamorphosis Foundation, as part of the project “Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub” presents you the eleventh monthly edition of “Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn 11.0” which is part of the data and early warning system for disinformation threats, based on the insights of the project partners from the six countries of the Western Balkans. The Disinfo Radar provides timely warning of expected critical events that may trigger disinformation narratives, based on risk assessment analysis obtained from continuous media monitoring and previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
In the latest edition of the monthly newsletter “DISINFO RADAR: Watch and Warn, No. 11 (prepared in October 2025)”, we highlight some of the expected key events that are likely to be used to spread disinformation in the Western Balkans.
WESTERN BALKANS: “Colored Revolution” disinformation narrative is anticipated to be used for discreditation of protests and deflecting accountability
In the aftermath of tragic incidents such as the Novi Sad railway station collapse in Serbia and the nightclub fire in Kočani, North Macedonia, grassroots protests demanding justice and accountability have been systematically delegitimized through the “colored revolution” disinformation narrative.
Political party-aligned media in both countries have portrayed these movements as Western-orchestrated plots aimed at government change, echoing long-standing pro-Russian messaging that equates civic activism with foreign interference. By framing students, NGOs and youth initiatives as agents of Western intelligence, the narrative diverts attention from genuine issues of corruption, accountability, and institutional decay, turning domestic outrage into a geopolitical confrontation.
ALBANIA: Disinformation threats surround upcoming Tirana local elections and EU reform agenda
Albania`s information environment is anticipated to be influenced by the upcoming partial local elections in Albania, particularly in Tirana, poised to become a major hotspot for information manipulation and disinformation. Confusion surrounding the legal and procedural aspects of the elections, stemming from the dismissal and ongoing trial of former mayor Erion Veliaj and the unclear role of the Constitutional Court has already created a space for false narratives. Competing political actors are expected to frame the process either as a normal democratic procedure or as unconstitutional manipulation.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Russia’s UNSC presidency expected to fuel Dayton agreement disinformation derailing EU-NATO integration
Bosnia and Herzegovina`s public discourse is expected to be heavily affected by Russia’s presidency of the UN Security Council (UNSC) which has already reignited information manipulation and disinformation campaigns through manipulative narratives surrounding the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA). Moscow’s declared intention to “reassess” the DPA framed as defending Serbian rights in Republika Srpska is anticipated to serve as a geopolitical instrument to derail BiH’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory.
KOSOVO: Parliamentary deadlock is foreseen to reignite polarizing information manipulation and disinformation
Kosovo’s information environment faces a critical test of its democratic resilience as the dispute rooted in Serb List’s insistence on exclusive representation rights has already been weaponized by political and media actors to frame Kosovo as unstable, undemocratic and incapable of protecting minority rights. Pro-Serbian outlets are expected to amplify narratives portraying Kosovo’s institutions as discriminatory and its government as hostile to Serbs, while simultaneously discrediting Kosovo’s Euro-Atlantic ambitions by depicting Western partners as complicit in “double standards.”
MONTENEGRO: Dual citizenship debate is forecasted as main trigger for disinformation wrapped around EU integration
Montenegro’s public debate over dual citizenship reform has become a new flashpoint for potential disinformation and foreign influence, intertwining questions of national identity, electoral integrity, and European integration. The proposed “blue card” system, supported by Prime Minister Spajić and backed by pro-Serbian parties, aims to grant extensive rights to Montenegrin emigrants, effectively easing the path toward dual citizenship. While framed as a measure to strengthen ties with the diaspora, critics warn it could reshape Montenegro’s political and demographic balance, enabling tens of thousands of Serbian nationals, estimated at around 150,000 potential voters to participate in Montenegrin elections.
NORTH MACEDONIA: Election discourse anticipated to resurface Eurosceptic disinformation narratives and Russian influence, deepening ethnic divides
As North Macedonia enters its election period, monitoring reveals a resurgence of Russian influence narratives embedded across political, religious, and cultural discourse. These narratives intertwine with local Eurosceptic rhetorics, seeking to erode citizens’ trust in the EU and position Russia as a moral and geopolitical alternative. Pro-Russian political parties such as “United Macedonia” and “Rodina” echo the narratives that portray EU integration as a threat to sovereignty, while religious figures amplify Moscow’s ideological reach, exemplified by Macedonian bishops who joined a Moscow liturgy praying for Russia’s victory in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister’s symbolic gestures toward Russian cultural figures underscored the persistence of soft power channels that complicate the country’s pro-European trajectory.
SERBIA: Information manipulation campaigns are expected to be weaponized to undermine trust and to legitimize crackdowns
Serbia’s information space is in a politically sensitive moment as protests marking the anniversary of the Novi Sad railway canopy collapse are expected to draw widespread public attention and possible unrest. Student groups are continuing the protests and demanding accountability and reforms, while authorities are responding with a heightened police presence. This combination creates momentum for manipulative narratives particularly from pro-government media aimed at discrediting demonstrators and reframing civic dissent as a foreign-orchestrated threat.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
Read more in the latest issue (#11) of the monthly newsletter „Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn“.
Raskrinkavanje.me Raskrinkavanje
International and Security Affairs Centre – ISAC
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