DISINFO RADAR: Pro-Russian narratives are expected to affect stability across the Western Balkans
Expected critical events likely to trigger disinformation narratives in October 2025, identified during September
Expected critical events likely to trigger disinformation narratives in October 2025, identified during September
Disinformation poses a persistent challenge in the Western Balkans, as harmful campaigns often target key events in order to deepen divisions, undermine trust in democratic institutions, and shake support for Euro-Atlantic integration.
The Metamorphosis Foundation, as part of the project “Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub” presents you the tenth monthly edition of “Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn 10.0” which is part of the data and early warning system for disinformation threats, based on the insights of the project partners from the six countries of the Western Balkans. The Disinfo Radar provides timely warning of expected critical events that may trigger disinformation narratives, based on risk assessment analysis obtained from continuous media monitoring and previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
In the latest edition of the monthly newsletter “DISINFO RADAR: Watch and Warn, No. 10 (prepared in September 2025)”, we highlight some of the expected key events that are likely to be used to spread disinformation in the Western Balkans.
Western Balkans: Russia’s move at the UN Security Council on Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to fuel anti-Western narratives that will affect stability throughout the Western Balkans
The UN Security Council session on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on October 21, convened by Russia, is expected to shape narratives not only in BiH but also across the wider Western Balkans region. Anti-Western actors are likely to amplify disinformation portraying state institutions as “occupiers” and NATO and the EU as threats to sovereignty.
This rhetoric is particularly sensitive in a region where three countries are NATO members and all six are formally on the path to EU membership. Such narratives risk undermining confidence in Euro-Atlantic integration and weakening public support for democratic reforms. The spillover effect could be particularly pronounced in Montenegro and North Macedonia, where anti-Western messages are already exploiting internal divisions and widespread skepticism about the EU.
The regional amplification of anti-Western narratives and secessionist rhetoric could further polarize societies in the region, inflame interethnic tensions, and provide an excuse for domestic elites to use to distract from governance failures. This moment, therefore, is likely to be used not only to destabilize Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also to undermine the credibility of the EU enlargement process, deepen political cynicism, and portray NATO as an aggressor rather than a security provider. Anticipating these narratives and countering them preemptively is crucial to safeguarding stability, trust in institutions, and the region’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory.
ALBANIA: Lack of transparency and disinformation surrounding the “AI Minister” are eroding public trust in institutions and EU reforms
The information environment in Albania has been disrupted by the new government’s controversial decision to appoint an “AI-generated minister” –the first in the world–as part of an anti-corruption policy in public procurement. Although promoted as a revolutionary measure, the lack of transparency about how the system will work in practice has created gaps in the air that are quickly being filled with disinformation. Public procurement is a key area in the EU accession negotiations (Chapter 5 of the acquis communautaire). The European Commission has already made it clear that AI tools can support the public procurement process, but cannot replace human responsibility and oversight. Speculation about automated management and a lack of accountability further erode public trust in EU-driven reforms.
Both the government and the opposition are expected to influence public opinion through opposing disinformation campaigns to secure political advantage. Pro-government voices present the AI system as resistant to corruption and a guarantee of fair public procurement, while the opposition portrays it as a scandal designed to cover up corruption and avoid accountability. Party-aligned media outlets reinforce these polarized narratives, leaving citizens trapped in a fog of contradictory and unverified claims. This environment of confusion not only risks delegitimizing the institutional set-up, but also undermining public trust in public procurement reforms and, thus, the broader EU accession process.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Republika Srpska referendum announcements and disinformation campaigns threaten the country’s Euro-Atlantic path
All attention in Bosnia and Herzegovina is focused on October 25, when Republika Srpska announced a referendum to keep ousted President Milorad Dodik in power. Adding to the tension is the fact that Russia will convene a UN Security Council (SC) session on Bosnia and Herzegovina on October 31, during its rotating presidency. In September, Dodik paid an official visit to Russia, during which senior Russian state officials and their embassy in Bosnia and Herzegovina expressed support for his claims, condemning and threatening the West. The timing of these events is highly symbolic and creates fertile ground for disinformation campaigns. Narratives that portray Bosniaks as allies of the “Western occupiers” and Serbs as defenders of sovereignty are likely to intensify polarization, erode trust in democratic institutions, and undermine international partnerships. The main goal of such narratives is to delegitimize Bosnia’s European path and deepen nationalist divisions.
Divisive narratives, such as claims that Serbs are being denied basic rights or that the EU and NATO are abusing territorial control, are expected to dominate public discourse and further deepen ethnic divisions. Anti-Western media outlets are likely to portray the upcoming events as evidence of Western destabilization, while legitimizing secessionist rhetoric as a justified response to alleged foreign interference. This information environment creates the conditions for obstructing the renewal of the EUFOR mandate in November and for undermining the credibility of international institutions such as the EU, the Office of the High Representative (OHR), and EUFOR Althea. As a result, Bosnia risks stalling reforms, increasing vulnerability to external influence, and deepening internal instability.
KOSOVO: Court decision on the Serb List party’s appeal risks fueling disinformation and deepening polarization in society
The political scene in Kosovo is in a state of heightened sensitivity due to the expected decision of the Constitutional Court on the appeal of the Serb List party regarding the election of the deputy presidents of the Assembly. The public debate is filled with open confrontations between the state leadership and the judiciary, with mutual accusations of exceeding powers, blockages, and political bias. As the September 30 deadline approaches, disinformation campaigns aimed at delegitimizing the independence of the Court are expected to intensify. These narratives risk eroding public trust in the judiciary and portraying Kosovo as incapable of preserving the constitutional order.
If the Court rejects the Serb List party’s appeal, manipulative narratives are expected to portray the decision as evidence of the systemic exclusion of Kosovo Serbs, reinforcing claims that Pristina cannot be considered a reliable protector of minority rights. In parallel, narratives highlighting institutional dysfunction, suggesting that the Government and Parliament of Kosovo are unable to manage even routine procedures, are likely to reinforce perceptions of political chaos. The cumulative effect of these campaigns would be to delegitimize Kosovo’s institutions and increase the country’s vulnerability to external influences at a critical moment in its Euro-Atlantic trajectory.
MONTENEGRO: Expected disinformation targeting delays in the EU integration process
Public discourse in Montenegro is expected to be inundated with intensified disinformation campaigns targeting the EU accession process, particularly exploiting political disputes such as the blockade by Croatia to portray the EU as biased. Narratives are likely to highlight that any delay is deliberate in order to weaken Montenegro, fueled by nationalist reactions, which erode citizens’ trust in democratic institutions. The end of the tourist season and the upcoming economic challenges are expected to be used to reinforce narratives of the failure of EU integration, followed by environmental debates about foreign coastal investments.
Montenegro’s role in regional security remains a target for hostile actors seeking to spread anti-Western sentiment. Narratives suggesting that NATO membership undermines national sovereignty or destabilizes the situation in the Balkans are expected to proliferate, fueling political polarization and deepening distrust in both domestic and international institutions. These campaigns are intended not only to weaken support for Montenegro’s Euro-Atlantic orientation, but also to influence the broader Western Balkans, where three countries are already NATO members.
NORTH MACEDONIA: Local elections create local disinformation fires
A month before local elections, public discourse in North Macedonia is, as expected, dominated by interethnic incidents and conflicting narratives surrounding them. At the same time, four major landfill fires occurred in the Skopje region, including Vardarishte, Drisla, the Shuto Orizari landfill, and the Trubarevo e-waste warehouse. These incidents caused serious pollution and were quickly politicized, with accusations against the opposition and counter-accusations against the authorities for a systemic failure to protect citizens.
Vague communication from official agencies has fueled confusion and fear among citizens, fueling conspiracy theories and increasing ethnic tensions, as some government officials publicly blame ethnic communities such as the Roma for criminal activities. Combined with the ongoing pollution from landfill fires, this uncertainty risks deepening public distrust of institutions. For now, the picture remains unclear. Experts say that while the possibility of a hybrid attack cannot be ruled out, such claims require careful assessment. Arson and sabotage are familiar tactics in hybrid operations, but any conclusion must be based on verified evidence, and government agencies should share additional information that could shed light on the origins and intentions behind the fires.
The confusion deepened after the prime minister said the fires were the result of a “hybrid attack,” a claim first publicly denied by the interior minister, who later revised his statement. The contradictory messages have created a climate of uncertainty and misinformation, leaving citizens trapped in a “smokescreen” while they confront the real health impacts of pollution. This episode further undermines public trust in institutions and reinforces perceptions of government inefficiency.
SERBIA: Protests face disinformation campaigns portraying activists as foreign-backed destabilizers
As October 5 and November 1 (two dates with symbolic significance in Serbia) approach, new mass protests have been announced. Pro-government media outlets are expected to intensify disinformation campaigns aimed at delegitimizing the civic mobilization. The symbolism of October 5, and the fall of Slobodan Milošević, is likely to be used in messages that portray the protests as dangerous, extremist, or manipulated by foreign actors. The protests on November 1, marking the anniversary of the student protests, are expected to be the largest ever. Faced with this increased momentum, the government may use disinformation narratives not only to stigmatize the protests, but also to justify repression and possibly call early elections as a way to reduce civic pressure.
Disinformation is expected to continue to “criminalize” activists and portray students as “foreign agents,” reinforcing claims that the protests are organized by the West to destabilize Serbia. Pro-government tabloids and political leaders close to the government are expected to amplify conspiracy theories and anti-Western narratives within an echo chamber. By sowing fear and distrust, such narratives aim to weaken civic activism, discourage participation in protests, and maintain political control mechanisms. In doing so, these narratives undermine Serbia’s EU trajectory, portraying European values such as democracy and accountability not as genuine domestic aspirations, but as externally imposed threats.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication of the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the data and early warning system for disinformation threats, based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides timely warning of expected critical events that may trigger disinformation narratives, based on risk assessment analysis from continuous media monitoring and previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in a concise and easy-to-read format and is distributed through the content center antidisinfo.net, via an electronic newsletter, as well as through the most popular social networks in the region.
Read more in the latest issue (#10) of the monthly newsletter “Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn.”
Raskrinkavanje.me Raskrinkavanje
International and Security Affairs Centre – ISAC
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