Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn – Flashpoint Events to Fuel Western Balkans Disinformation in June 2025 and Beyond
Disinformation is a persistent challenge in the Western Balkans, where various campaigns often target major events to deepen divisions, undermine trust in democratic institutions, and erode support for Euro-Atlantic integration. Here are some of the anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during the following months, in the latest edition of the monthly newsletter Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn
Disinformation is a persistent challenge in the Western Balkans, where various campaigns often target major events to deepen divisions, undermine trust in democratic institutions, and erode support for Euro-Atlantic integration. Here are some of the anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during the following months, in the latest edition of the monthly newsletter Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn
Region – Anticipated disinformation campaigns targeting NATO’ unity ahead of the Summit in The Hague: The 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, scheduled from 24 to 26 June, has been identified as a focal point for disinformation campaigns in the Western Balkans. The ongoing global geopolitical instability and having three of the six Western Balkan countries—Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia as NATO members, are expected to be exploited as a basis for antidemocratic propaganda. Reviving old narratives such as the dragging of the region into unwanted conflicts, particularly by supporting Ukraine or invoking the NATO’S air campaign in Serbia in the 1990’s, are to be expected as well.
Region – Football match between Albania and Serbia (SPECIAL REPORT): The upcoming World Cup qualifier match between Albania and Serbia on June 7, 2025 in Tirana risks reigniting ethno-nationalist tensions through targeted disinformation campaigns. With over 200,000 ticket requests and heightened security protocols, the match arrives amid a decade-long history of politicized clashes, including the 2014 drone incident.
Albania – Election results are likely to propel surge of disinformation: As Albania waits for the official results of parliamentary election held in May, there is growing risk of disinformation surges. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) gained significantly less votes than in previous elections, and both major parties are pushing conflicting stories. As DP rejects the results, it is expected to file complaints with Central Election Commission (CEC) that would delay publishing of official results.
Bosnia and Herzegovina -Srebrenica Genocide Anniversary: The commemoration of the Srebrenica Genocide on July 11 has been identified as a focal point for heightened disinformation efforts in Bosnia and Herzegovina during June, particularly in light of the recent reaffirmation of the 2024 UN resolution. These disinformation narratives are expected to center on reframing and reinforcing genocide denial and glorification of war crimes.
Kosovo – Police operations in the North are expected to trigger disinformation: Operations by Kosovo’s police targeting institutions in the Serb-majority northern areas are likely to be accompanied by a spike in disinformation affecting public discourse. While officially announced as efforts to enforce legal sovereignty over structures operating outside the Kosovo constitutional framework, Serbian media often depict these actions as ethnically-motivated institutional purges.
Montenegro – Targeting Montenegro’s tourist season: While Montenegro is preparing for the tourist season, country’s information environment is getting ready for predictable disinformation campaigns, expected to primarily originate from Serbian media. Previous years have shown coordinated efforts in portraying Montenegro’s touristic capacities as unwelcoming for Serbian citizens as well as unsafe both criminally through exorbitant prices or mistreatment at the border.
North Macedonia – UK/N.Macedonia Partnership Agreement and the migrant issue: The United Kingdom and North Macedonia strategic partnership announcement during the European Political Community summit in Tirana, has been making waves inside the country. Disinformation linking the agreement to the establishment of migrant “return centres” on Macedonian territory are very likely to resurface in the public discourse.
Serbia – Emerging Environment/Agriculture Crisis to inspire disinformation: Emerging disinformation campaigns are likely to exploit the agricultural and environmental crisis in three key ways: by minimizing or denying the reality of environmental degradation, by linking ecological challenges to foreign influence—especially the EU—and by delegitimizing environmental activists and scientists.
Read the complete report in the latest edition of the monthly newsletter “Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn”
Raskrinkavanje.me Raskrinkavanje
International and Security Affairs Centre – ISAC
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