DISINFO RADAR: Watch and Warn, issue #11 (prepared in October 2025)

Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during November 2025, identified during October 

Western Balkans Watch and Warn:
“Colored Revolution” disinformation narrative is anticipated to be used for discreditation of protests and deflecting accountability 

In the aftermath of tragic incidents such as the Novi Sad railway station collapse in Serbia and the nightclub fire in Kočani, North Macedonia, grassroots protests demanding justice and accountability have been systematically delegitimized through the “colored revolution” disinformation narrative. Political party-aligned media in both countries have portrayed these movements as Western-orchestrated plots aimed at government change, echoing long-standing pro-Russian messaging that equates civic activism with foreign interference. By framing students, NGOs and youth initiatives as agents of Western intelligence, the narrative diverts attention from genuine issues of corruption, accountability, and institutional decay, turning domestic outrage into a geopolitical confrontation. 

This framing has since spread regionally, with disinformation networks in Bosnia and Herzegovina amplifying similar claims. Pro-government Serbian outlets accused fact-checkers and independent journalists of participating in a “Western conspiracy,” and suppressing the “patriotic” media. Disinformation actors amplified these claims to discredit independent journalism and align public opinion with pro-Russian narratives, framing the West as the primary source of unrest and manipulation. As the anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy approaches, these narratives are expected to intensify, painting protests as threats to national stability while reinforcing anti-Western sentiment. Information manipulation is foreseen, aimed to delegitimize civic movements, discourage public mobilization and reframe democratic activism as foreign manipulation, aligning public perception with authoritarian interests.  

 

Albania: Disinformation threats surround upcoming Tirana local elections and EU reform agenda

Albania`s information environment is anticipated to be influenced by the upcoming partial local elections in Albania, particularly in Tirana, poised to become a major hotspot for information manipulation and disinformation. Confusion surrounding the legal and procedural aspects of the elections, stemming from the dismissal and ongoing trial of former mayor Erion Veliaj and the unclear role of the Constitutional Court has already created a space for false narratives. Competing political actors are expected to frame the process either as a normal democratic procedure or as unconstitutional manipulation. As the campaign intensifies ahead of the November 9th elections, disinformation will likely multiply across partisan-inclined media, anonymous portals and social media channels, aiming to discredit opponents rather than inform citizens. This distortion of the public discourse threatens to undermine confidence in electoral integrity, a key pillar in Albania’s EU integration process. 

Competing narratives portraying one side as heroic defenders of democracy and the other as corrupt villains are expected to dominate the public information environment, leaving citizens exposed to emotionally charged and misleading content. Media echo chambers and politically aligned commentators are anticipated to amplify unverified claims, obscuring genuine policy discussions and shaping voter behavior through manipulation rather than informed choice. Information manipulation and disinformation exploiting Albania’s regional positioning, such as the accusations that government figures are “too close to Serbia” or disloyal to Kosovo are expected to also surface, further polarizing public opinion. Ultimately, this election cycle risks deepening mistrust in institutions and eroding democratic culture in a country already navigating critical reforms on its path toward the European Union. 

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Russia’s UNSC presidency expected to fuel Dayton agreement disinformation derailing EU-NATO integration 

Bosnia and Herzegovina`s public discourse is expected to be heavily affected by Russia’s presidency of the UN Security Council (UNSC) which has already reignited information manipulation and disinformation campaigns through manipulative narratives surrounding the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA). Moscow’s declared intention to “reassess” the DPA framed as defending Serbian rights in Republika Srpska is anticipated to serve as a geopolitical instrument to derail BiH’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory. Disinformation exploiting the DPA’s provisions typically resurfaces during such politically charged moments, falsely alleging that BiH’s Constitution prohibits the existence of state-level institutions such as the judiciary or security agencies. These narratives aim to legitimize calls to “return to the original DPA,” effectively dismantling key state authorities and weakening BiH’s sovereignty. Russian officials have openly claimed that Western “interference” in BiH is causing institutional “collapse,” aligning with local secessionist rhetoric and reinforcing anti-NATO and anti-EU messaging in the Western Balkans. 

This disinformation narrative is designed to polarize BiH’s multi-ethnic society, undermine trust in state institutions, and inflame nationalist sentiments. By promoting the false notion that reforms essential for EU and NATO integration violate the DPA, authoritarian actors seek to freeze BiH’s accession process and strengthen antidemocratic influence in the region. The manipulation of constitutional interpretation, coupled with historical revisionism and conspiracy portraying Western engagement as “foreign occupation” fosters fear of renewed conflict and erodes post-war reconciliation. Such narratives not only destabilize BiH internally but also threaten to spill over regionally, emboldening secessionist tendencies and complicating Western diplomatic engagement. 

Kosovo: Parliamentary deadlock is foreseen to reignite polarizing information manipulation and disinformation

Kosovo’s information environment faces a critical test of its democratic resilience as the dispute rooted in Serb List’s insistence on exclusive representation rights has already been weaponized by political and media actors to frame Kosovo as unstable, undemocratic and incapable of protecting minority rights. Pro-Serbian outlets are expected to amplify narratives portraying Kosovo’s institutions as discriminatory and its government as hostile to Serbs, while simultaneously discrediting Kosovo’s Euro-Atlantic ambitions by depicting Western partners as complicit in “double standards.” These claims risk intensifying polarization between communities, undermining the legitimacy of democratic institutions and weakening public trust during a defining political moment. 

Information manipulation and disinformation narratives are expected to target both local Albanian and Serbian audiences, with manipulative narratives depicting the Constitutional Court as politically compromised or favoring Belgrade, fueling frustration with institutional integrity, or through coordinated media campaigns emphasizing alleged marginalization, reinforcing feelings of victimhood and alienation from institutions. The cross-border amplification of such narratives by Serbian affiliated media, supported by regional tabloids and online echo chambers are foreseen to aim at destabilizing Kosovo`s internally while depicting it internationally as a “failed democracy.” This moment, therefore, is not only a domestic constitutional test but also a strategic vulnerability in Kosovo’s path toward EU and NATO integration, where maintaining social cohesion, interethnic trust and faith in rule-based governance are crucial for the Euro-Atlantic path.

Montenegro: Dual citizenship debate is forecasted as main trigger for disinformation wrapped around EU integration

Montenegro’s public debate over dual citizenship reform has become a new flashpoint for potential disinformation and foreign influence, intertwining questions of national identity, electoral integrity, and European integration. The proposed “blue card” system, supported by Prime Minister Spajić and backed  by pro-Serbian parties, aims to grant extensive rights to Montenegrin emigrants, effectively easing the path toward dual citizenship. While framed as a measure to strengthen ties with the diaspora, critics warn  it could reshape Montenegro’s political and demographic balance, enabling tens of thousands of Serbian nationals, estimated at around 150,000 potential voters to participate in Montenegrin elections. This raises alarm over possible external electoral manipulation and the erosion of sovereignty through demographic engineering. The European Commission has already cautioned that such steps must be closely coordinated with Brussels, warning that any unilateral move could endanger Montenegro’s EU accession process and create new security vulnerabilities. 

Disinformation narratives surrounding this issue are expected to polarize public opinion by framing the reform either as an act of “national reunification” or as evidence of “foreign infiltration.” Pro-Serbian media are likely to amplify claims portraying the EU as obstructing Montenegro’s “right to reconnect with its diaspora,” while opposition voices may depict the government as undermining national independence. This environment creates fertile ground for information manipulation and disinformation aimed at eroding citizens’ trust in democratic institutions and dividing society along ethnic and geopolitical lines. Given Montenegro’s small population and fragile post-election equilibrium, disinformation around the citizenship debate could have an outsized impact on political stability, with long-term implications for the country’s Euro-Atlantic future.

North Macedonia: Election discourse anticipated to resurface Eurosceptic disinformation narratives and Russian influence, deepening ethnic divides 

As North Macedonia enters its election period, monitoring reveals a resurgence of Russian influence narratives embedded across political, religious, and cultural discourse. These narratives intertwine with local Eurosceptic rhetorics, seeking to erode citizens’ trust in the EU and position Russia as a moral and geopolitical alternative. Pro-Russian political parties such as United Macedonia and Rodina echo the narratives that portray EU integration as a threat to sovereignty, while religious figures amplify Moscow’s ideological reach,  exemplified by Macedonian bishops who joined a Moscow liturgy praying for Russia’s victory in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister’s symbolic gestures toward Russian cultural figures underscored the persistence of soft power channels that complicate the country’s pro-European trajectory. 

Disinformation campaigns are expected to escalate polarization by exploiting ethnic divisions and pitting Macedonian and Albanian communities against each other on the question of EU membership. Messaging that frames EU integration as conditional or one-sided deepens distrust and distracts public attention from urgent domestic reforms in governance, corruption, and the judiciary. The blending of nationalist rhetoric, clerical influence and Eurosceptic narratives create an information environment ripe for information manipulation where the choice between “brotherhood” and “subordination” becomes a manipulative binary. This dynamic not only weakens institutional credibility but also embeds disinformation into public memory, challenging North Macedonia’s democratic resilience and its long-term Euro-Atlantic orientation. 

Serbia: Information manipulation campaigns are expected to be weaponized to undermine trust and to legitimize  crackdowns 

Serbia’s information space is in a politically sensitive moment as protests marking the anniversary of the Novi Sad railway canopy collapse are expected to draw widespread public attention and possible unrest. Student groups are continuing the protests and demanding accountability and reforms, while authorities are responding with a heightened police presence. This combination creates momentum for manipulative narratives particularly from pro-government media aimed at discrediting demonstrators and reframing civic dissent as a foreign-orchestrated threat. Tabloids are expected to push claims of “foreign funding,” attempts of “colored revolution” also deemed “new Maidan,” or “student extremism.” These narratives seek to delegitimize the protests, justify excessive use of force and portray the government as the sole guarantor of order and stability. Such information manipulation not only distorts public perception but also undermines trust in democratic institutions, the education system and civil society. 

The broader risk extends beyond the protests themselves. By fuelling fear and polarization, this information manipulation aims to erode public sympathy for civic movements and strengthen authoritarian control. It reinforces a delegitimization of institutions narrative suggesting that universities, independent media and even student organizations are corrupt or politically manipulated therefore further weakening Serbia’s democratic fabric. Internationally, how authorities handle these events will be closely watched by the EU, as it reflects Serbia’s commitment to fundamental freedoms, accountability, and rule of law core elements of the EU accession process. The use of state-aligned media to suppress dissent and distort narratives is reinforcing perceptions of democratic backsliding and state-controlled information environment.  

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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.

The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.

 

 

 

 

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