DISINFO RADAR: Watch and Warn, issue #12 (prepared in November 2025)
Anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives in the Western Balkans during December 2025, identified during November
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Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Foreseen increases in anti-migrant disinformation narratives pose a threat to stability in the Western Balkans
A new wave of anti-migrant disinformation is likely to spread across the Western Balkans, building on recent online posts and media content that portray migrants as criminals, extremists or existential threats to national identity. Similar narratives already appear in most of the Western Balkan countries where anti-EU actors are framing migration as a danger to social stability and promote unfounded claims of “migrant invasions.” This is reframing the actual official news and data from media outlets that reflect the ongoing migrant flow in Europe. At the same time, official data shows that irregular migrant crossings in the region have significantly declined, contradicting sensational claims amplified on social networks. These narratives are designed to provoke fear, anger and ethnic insecurity, often presenting migration as part of a larger conspiracy or an alleged burden imposed by the EU.
Such disinformation harms democratic societies by eroding trust in institutions, fueling polarization and undermining respect for human rights as core values tied to each country’s EU integration path. When migrants are framed as threats, public debate becomes dominated by fear rather than evidence, making societies more vulnerable to manipulation by domestic actors seeking political gain and by external actors aiming to weaken the region’s alignment with the EU. This environment not only disrupts social cohesion but also risks slowing or derailing EU negotiations, as countries appear unable to uphold European standards on rule of law, minority protection and responsible migration management.
Albania: Heavily politicized and polarized narratives around gender and civil status laws are expected to target the EU accession process
Albania`s public discourse is expected to revolve around the new Law on Gender Equality, which the Parliament has already approved, and proposed amendments to the Civil Status Law, which will be voted on in early December. These two laws have no legal or policy connection, however they are facing two different narratives from positioning sides, making them the center around which disinformation campaigns and speculations are expected to occur, especially those that turn complex reforms into emotional “culture war” messages. Disinformation may claim that the laws “change national identity,” “destroy traditional values,” or introduce ideas that the laws do not contain at all. The goal of these narratives is to create fear, anger and confusion, often by exaggerating or inventing implications of the laws. These narratives are directly harming the EU negotiations and accession process of the country.
Political actors, sensationalist media, religious groups, influencers and anonymous online pages are expected to amplify such claims, while external actors could exploit the situation for regional political gain. Тhe ruling party creates the impression that both laws are part of one agenda on gender issues while several groups including Pro-Life and Family are pressuring the President not to sign the laws. This debate also unfolds as Albania works to open five EU negotiation clusters, making accurate information especially important. As these messages spread, the public may feel divided or distrustful of institutions, making verified sources such as fact-checking organizations crucial for citizens avoiding being misled in a highly emotional political moment.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Coordinated disinformation narratives surrounding the Dayton revision are expected to undermine democracy and the country’s EU path
In the coming period, citizens in Bosnia and Herzegovina can expect a new wave of coordinated disinformation that tries to paint the country as unstable, divided and incapable of democratic progress. A growing mix of Serbian and Croatian nationalist narratives including calls for a “third entity,” claims about the “collapse of civic Bosnia” and distortions of the European Commission’s report are already spreading across media and social networks. These messages, often promoted by politically controlled outlets and regional actors, present fabricated threats and exaggerated ethnic dangers. When combined with long-standing Serbian and Russian narratives about “returning to the original Dayton,” they work together to question the legitimacy of the state, undermine trust in its institutions and convince citizens that coexistence is impossible.
The harm of these narratives is not abstract, it directly affects the country’s democratic fabric and its European future. By pushing people to fear each other, these campaigns weaken public trust, polarize communities and make it harder for institutions to function. They distract citizens from real problems like corruption, economic stagnation and accountability, while empowering political actors who rely on division to stay in power. Most dangerously, they try to create the impression that Bosnia and Herzegovina is too fragile or too divided for EU membership. If these narratives take hold, they could slow down reforms, erode hope in the European project and push the country into instability through deliberate attempts to manipulate society.
Kosovo: Stability-related disinformation narratives are expected to intensify after the local elections
Kosovo’s upcoming transfer of power in the northern municipalities is becoming a key moment where disinformation is expected to spread rapidly. As the newly elected Serb List mayors prepare to take their oath and assume office, the question is whether they will take oath under the coat of arms of the Republic of Kosovo, therefore recognizing the legitimacy of the institutions of Kosovo. Political, media and foreign actors are likely to push misleading narratives that portray the process as either an attack on the Serb community or a political concession. Some Serbian-language outlets may claim that Kosovo is “blocking Serb representation,” or that the Serbian state is “giving up sovereignty.” At the same time, Russian-aligned channels are expected to amplify warnings of “imminent tensions” or “Western interference” to create confusion and fear. These narratives will aim to question the legality of the oath, create doubts about institutional legitimacy and portray Kosovo as entering a new political crisis regardless of the facts.
The harm of these disinformation campaigns goes far beyond online noise. Such narratives are designed to deepen mistrust between communities, make ethnic Serb citizens feel threatened and push Kosovar Albanians to believe the state is being undermined thus feeding polarization on both sides. Warnings about violence, administrative “purges,” or property seizures can create real fear and discourage people from engaging with local institutions. By portraying every step of this transition as manipulated or externally dictated, these efforts weaken trust in democratic processes and damage Kosovo’s international credibility at a sensitive time for its EU and NATO integration.
Montenegro: Exaggerated migrant-threat narratives fueling anti-Turkish sentiment amid the visa suspension are likely to continue in the coming period
Recent narratives circulating online misrepresent the situation surrounding migrants in Montenegro, particularly Turkish and Azerbaijani nationals. Some posts spread false or exaggerated claims about the size and intentions of migrant communities, framing them as a danger to public safety, local businesses, and cultural cohesion and using these narratives to stir fear, influence public opinion, and gain political leverage. In reality, official data show far lower numbers than those circulated online, and no evidence supports claims of targeted demographic manipulation or criminal behavior by migrants.
While some politicians and media outlets have amplified these narratives, authorities have clarified the facts and emphasized that migrant residents are entitled to safety and protection. Such misinformation should be understood in context, as similar anti-migrant narratives are often exploited by populist actors across the region to mobilize public sentiment. Despite the distortions, government and diplomatic interventions have aimed to preserve public order, protect residents, and prevent further escalation of ethnic tensions. In response to rising tensions, the Government of Montenegro temporarily suspended the visa-free regime for Turkish citizens, citing public safety concerns. According to official statements, the measure is temporary and aims to strengthen mechanisms for monitoring the entry and stay of foreign nationals. The suspension followed a stabbing incident in Podgorica and related unrest, including protests and property damage, and was communicated alongside assurances that Turkish residents’ rights and safety would be protected.
North Macedonia: Manipulations of the EU’s progress report are anticipated to continue fueling disinformation and anti-EU narratives that seek to minimize its importance
Monitoring of the information environment in North Macedonia indicates an increase of disinformation claims that the EU’s conditions outlined in the latest progress report are designed to “destroy the nation,” misrepresenting standard reform requirements as an existential threat and using these points for political conditioning, pressure, and domestic political dynamics. In reality, the European Commission notes limited progress compared to last year, but no regression. While Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski has publicly stated that North Macedonia has been unjustly kept “in the EU waiting room,” while at the same time statements from his political party downplayed the report by referring to it as a “tiny report,” a deminutive phrase in Macedonian used to minimize its significance.
Two weeks later, Mckoski reiterated that the country remains committed to the EU path but argued that the EU applies double standards. This longstanding narrative has persisted in the Macedonian disinformation landscape for years and is further amplified whenever repeated by high-level officials. Such distortions reinforce entrenched Eurosceptic and anti-Western messaging, portraying the EU and NATO as threats to the country’s sovereignty. Misinterpretations did not stop there, as some actors went even further by fabricating claims that the report never contained. For example, the Municipality of Tetovo falsely announced that it had been positively evaluated by the European Commission for increasing green areas, improving air quality, and creating a healthier environment for citizens. But Tetovo is mentioned only once in the report, solely in reference to the completion of the cadastre for air pollutants, with no praise or assessment of environmental policies. In reality, the municipality continues to struggle with severe air pollution and lacks green spaces to support such claims.
Serbia: Anticipated disinformation campaigns ahead of the Generalštab Protests
As Serbia heads into a new wave of mobilization over the planned demolition of the Generalštab (General Staff) complex, disinformation is expected to intensify in the weeks leading up to and especially around the protests and the 1999 NATO bombing anniversary next spring. The government’s adoption of a lex specialis enabling demolition of a protected cultural monument has already polarized the public, creating fertile ground for narratives that downplay or mock the building’s cultural value, frame preservation efforts as obstacles to “development,” or depict civic activists as politically motivated agitators. These narratives will aim to weaken support for student and civil society groups, obscure rule-of-law concerns and reframe a heritage preservation issue into a manufactured political conflict. Because the Generalštab is symbolically linked to NATO’s 1999 air campaign, disinformation actors are also likely to weaponize the topic to reinforce anti-Western sentiment and undermine Serbia’s stated commitment to European standards on transparency, cultural protection, and public participation.
Simultaneously, the public should expect a wave of elite-driven conspiracy narratives, portraying protests as manipulated by foreign powers or “powerful interests” supposedly seeking to destabilize Serbia. Pro-government tabloids and aligned online networks will likely amplify claims that students are “paid provocateurs,” that foreign cultural institutions are pressuring Serbia to stop its development, or that activists are acting on behalf of Western actors attempting to rewrite the meaning of the 1999 bombing. These narratives serve to obscure the actual motivations behind the demolition—private profit and political gain—while distracting from the concerns raised by cultural experts, architects, and civil society organizations.
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication by the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation threats based on the insights of the project partners from the six Western Balkan countries. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns.
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