Has the influx of Ukrainian refugees to Europe sparked a crime wave

The Belarusian Investigative Center analyzed official statistics and calculated the number of suspects per 100,000 inhabitants among nationals, foreigners overall, and Ukrainian citizens. In Poland, the Czech Republic, and Germany, the countries that accepted the largest numbers of Ukrainian refugees, the data show that Ukrainians’ share of crime is in some cases slightly higher and in others slightly lower than that of the local population

 

We checked the statistics and police reports.

The surge of refugees from Ukraine, along with high-profile crimes or offenses
involving them, often sparks a backlash against the newcomers in European
countries. This fuels fears that rising migration will drive up crime rates. Such
conclusions are most often based on cherry-picked statistics, politicians’ statements
or discussion of sensational incidents involving Ukrainian citizens. At the same time,
other views have been voiced: Ukrainians are often described as more law-abiding
than other migrants. To test both hypotheses without emotion, we turned to the latest
2023 Eurostat data, national agency statistics and police reports.

What the facts and figures show

Every country has people who commit crimes, so expecting any group to be entirely
crime-free is unrealistic. What matters is how the crime rate among Ukrainian refugees
compares to that of citizens in host countries.
We compiled official statistics and calculated the number of suspects per 100,000 residents:
among citizens of the country, foreigners overall and Ukrainian nationals. This allowed us to
assess crime rates in each of these groups.

In Poland, the Czech Republic and Germany, which host the largest numbers of Ukrainian
refugees, the statistics show: in some cases their share is slightly higher, in others lower
than among local residents.

Germany

According to 2024 data from the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Ukrainian citizens commit
fewer crimes than foreigners on average. Suspects from Syria, Turkey and Romania appear
more frequently in the statistics. Syrians rank first, accounting for roughly 5% of all suspects
(regardless of citizenship), while Ukrainians make up only about 2.5%. This is explained by
the fact that Ukrainian refugees include more women and children, while migrants from other
regions are predominantly men, a group that statistically commits crimes more often.

At the same time, the crime rate among Ukrainians is higher than among German citizens:
for every 100,000 Ukrainian passport holders, there are over 4,000 suspected of violating
the law, compared to fewer than 2,000 among Germans.

The Czech Republic

In the Czech Republic, Ukrainians can be described as one of the most law-abiding groups.
Representing roughly 5% of the country’s population, they account for only 3% of all
suspects.

In absolute numbers, Ukrainians do lead among foreign offenders, but this is explained by
their population size. When comparing the number of Ukrainian citizens to the number of
offenses, there are about 450 suspects per 100,000 people. By comparison, among all
foreigners this figure is roughly twice as high, while among Czech citizens it’s 1.5 times
higher.

This shows Ukrainians break the law even less frequently than Czechs themselves.

Poland

Of the roughly 1.5 million Ukrainians officially living in Poland, fewer than 10,000 had run-ins
with police in 2023 — less than 1%.

By comparison, among Georgian citizens this figure is around 10%. The share of offenders among Ukrainians is lower than among Poles, and significantly below the average rate for all foreigners. According to 2023 police data, the most common offense among migrants is driving under the influence.

The bottom line

In all three countries, the crime rate among Ukrainians is below the average for
foreigners. In the Czech Republic and Poland, they break the law less often than local  residents. In Germany, the rate is higher than among the country’s citizens.

Source: Has the influx of Ukrainian refugees to Europe sparked a crime wave

 

This article was produced in 2026 for the project Prebunking at Scale, with support from the European Fact-Checking Standards Network.

 

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