The Iran war and the oil crisis: Europeans turned to Russian fuel, while our neighbors filled up here

The ceasefire in the Middle East has brought a sense of relief, but it is still too early to say the conflict is nearing an end. The key question now is whether there will be progress in negotiations over the next two weeks. The IMF has warned that even if the war were to end immediately, the economic consequences would still be significant, with higher inflation and slower global growth expected. Meanwhile, anti-Western narratives are spreading on social media, claiming to explain the reasons behind the war. Posts are also glorifying Russia and falsely claiming that Europeans are travelling there in large numbers to buy cheaper fuel. The Macedonian authorities are urging calm, saying there is no reason for panic. They note that North Macedonia has by far the lowest fuel prices in the region, with drivers from neighboring countries even crossing the border to fill up at Macedonian petrol stations

The world breathed a sigh of relief, at least for the time being, after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Oil prices began to fall, although they remain higher than they were before the conflict in the Middle East began. Earlier, President Donald Trump gave Iran a deadline: by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, it had to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on the country’s critical infrastructure. Iran responded by saying it would defend its power plants and bridges with human shields. Shortly before the ultimatum expired, Trump threatened to destroy “an entire civilization.”

The conflict in the Middle East has entered its sixth week, while Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused major disruptions to global oil supplies. The U.S. president has continued to give contradictory statements about when the war might end and when the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes, will be reopened to allow the free passage of oil tankers. Frustrated that European NATO allies did not provide the military support he had expected, he told European leaders to “go and get your own oil from the Strait of Hormuz.” Russia has called for an immediate ceasefire and intensified diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in the Middle East. As a close partner of Iran, Moscow is seeking to protect its own interests and preserve its influence in the region. China has also called for an immediate end to the conflict and the reopening of this vital global energy route.

Where does North Macedonia fit into this global picture? How resilient is the country to global market shocks, how much will it feel the impact of the Middle East crisis, and how much can consumers expect oil and fuel prices to rise?

Authorities reassure: We have the lowest inflation in the region

The authorities are urging calm, saying there is no reason for panic. They insist the situation remains stable, with North Macedonia continuing to have by far the lowest fuel prices in the region. In fact, drivers from neighboring countries are crossing the border to fill up at Macedonian petrol stations. The government says supplies of fuel and electricity remain stable, while inflation has fallen below 3% (2.9% in February). Officials have pledged to take all necessary measures to maintain price stability.

Responding to a question from journalists on 10 March 2026 about whether the government was monitoring inflation, Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski said:

Yes. Yesterday, the State Statistical Office published the cost of living data for February 2026. I had mentioned this several times in my previous statements, and yesterday it was confirmed that inflation had fallen below 3%, reaching 2.9%. It is once again the lowest in the region, or I would say, among the very lowest. For comparison, inflation is 3% in Greece, 3.5% in Bulgaria, 5.8% in Kosovo based on January data, as February figures are not yet available, more than 3.8% in Croatia, 4% in Slovakia, and over 9% in Romania. So, all the policies for which we asked the public to be patient are, slowly but surely, beginning to deliver results.

I expect that, following tomorrow’s meeting with distributors and supermarket chains, we will be able to maintain this momentum and keep inflation on a downward trend.

Inflation, however, is gaining momentum

The prime minister’s expectations have not been met, as inflation has picked up momentum, with food costs rising by 7.5%.

The State Statistical Office reported that inflation rose to 4.9% in March compared to the same month last year, while retail prices increased by 3.4%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded a 7.5% annual increase. Over the past year, prices have also gone up for clothing and footwear, healthcare, recreation, sports and culture. In addition, costs have risen in restaurants, accommodation services, and education.

Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski says the government is currently carrying out analyses and has announced new targeted measures after Easter. He added that future steps would be more focused on specific groups of citizens and basic food products.

 

The Middle East conflict has raised alarms across Europe

The war with Iran pushed inflation in the eurozone to 2.5% in March. This significant increase is directly linked to the surge in oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

Preliminary data published by Eurostat in Luxembourg show that retail prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year in March, an increase compared to the previous month. By comparison, the inflation rate in February stood at 1.9%. The European Central Bank (ECB) targets an annual inflation rate of 2% over the medium term, according to DPA.

On March 31, the European Commission called on member states to prepare in a timely and coordinated manner for possible disruptions to oil supplies, in order to preserve market stability and avoid measures that could increase fuel consumption.

In a letter to energy ministers, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said that energy supplies remain secure for the time being, but warned of the risk of prolonged disruptions due to the crisis in the Middle East and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

We look forward to working with you to protect Europe and ensure its prosperity, the message reads.

Member states are being urged to reduce demand, particularly in the transport sector, and to avoid policies that disrupt the free movement of petroleum products. They are also encouraged to refrain from measures that increase fuel consumption. The Commission also recommends postponing non-essential refinery maintenance to help ensure stable supplies, as well as increasing the use of biofuels as an alternative in order to reduce pressure on conventional energy sources.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the war in the Middle East would lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth, with poorer countries lacking energy resources expected to be hit the hardest.

 The war in the Middle East will lead to higher inflation and slower global ​growth, “IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters on April 7, 2026.

As Reuters reports, the war is expected to dominate discussions among finance officials from around the world at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington next week. The IMF is due to release a series of economic scenarios on April 14 and had already signaled a possible downgrade at the end of March, citing the war’s asymmetric shock to the global economy and tighter financial conditions.

The only country in the region that did not increase, but instead reduced fuel prices this week is North Macedonia. Unleaded 95 and 98 octane petrol has been reduced by 2.5 denars, while diesel prices remained unchanged. This is the result of a decision by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), and we currently have by far the lowest fuel prices in the region. This means that, domestically, unleaded fuel ranges from €1.33 to €1.39 per liter, while diesel is around €1.50–€1.53 per liter. In neighboring Albania and Greece, prices are above €2 per liter, in Serbia they range from €1.81 to over €2, and in Kosovo they are also at similar levels,” said Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski on 1 April, answering a journalist’s question.

The Prime Minister noted that fuel prices in Germany have already reached as much as €3 per liter, with similar trends seen in other European countries. In other words, he added, “during this first month of the largest oil crisis in history since the one in the 1970s, we as a country are demonstrating stability, security, and a plan to address this challenge.”

I assure the citizens that at this moment the situation is stable, and I see absolutely no reason for fear of a shortage of energy sources, or for the introduction of any kind of emergency situations, both in the electricity market and in the oil and oil derivatives market, said Hristijan Mickoski.

Earlier, Hristijan Mickoski (March 11, 2026) stated that, in fact, citizens from neighboring countries are even being helped to refuel at petrol stations in North Macedonia.

Our resources are made available to neighboring countries and to citizens from neighboring countries so that they can refuel at a lower price.

About ten days later, on March 22, 2026, Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski stated that, with the government’s measures, North Macedonia is expected to have the lowest fuel prices in the region, even in conditions of a global price increase. According to the Prime Minister, up to 150,000 liters of fuel are being purchased daily in border areas, accounting for around 10 percent of total consumption. However, the government does not currently plan to introduce restrictions on citizens from neighboring countries who refuel at petrol stations in North Macedonia.

On April 5, Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski announced that the government had adopted a new package of emergency measures to mitigate the effects of the global energy crisis, including reductions in fuel excise duties and an extension of the reduced VAT rate.

We are continuing with the reduced VAT rate of 18% to 10%, and at the same time we have adopted a decision to reduce excise duties on diesel by 4 denars per liter and on 95- and 98-octane petrol by 2 denars per liter, thereby directly influencing the reduction of prices, said Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski.

He emphasized that without these measures, the price of diesel would have exceeded 102 denars per liter, while petrol prices would have increased further, but that through these decisions the government had managed to mitigate the price pressure. He also added that fuel supply remains stable and that there is no need for restrictions, despite increased consumption, which has reached up to 2 million liters per day.

According to the latest decision (April 6, 2026) by the regulatory authorities, the price of diesel increased by 2.5 denars, while the price of 95-octane petrol (BS-95) was reduced by 0.5 denars, and the price of 98-octane petrol (BS-98) remained unchanged.

The increase in the price of diesel fuel will undoubtedly affect transport costs and the prices of services related to it.

Anti-Western narratives

Meanwhile, disinformation and anti-Western narratives are spreading on social media regarding the reasons behind the war, as well as conspiracy theories suggesting that events in Iran are linked to a so-called “Great Reset”—a secret global plan by elites (governments, billionaires, and international organizations) aimed at exerting control over the world’s population, establishing a global government, and introducing systems of global surveillance and control over food, energy, and money. Contrary to such conspiratorial scenarios, one of the main causes of the conflict is the suspicion that Iran may be developing nuclear weapons. Israel and the United States argue that this would pose a security threat to the region and the world. Iran, on the other hand, states that its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes (energy production and scientific research).

At the same time, posts are circulating on social media that glorify Russia, with false claims suggesting that Europeans are traveling there en masse to buy cheaper fuel.

Europeans are waiting for hours in queues at the Poland–Kaliningrad border crossings to enter Russia and refuel, where the price is around 68 rubles per liter, compared to 131 rubles in Poland and 193 in Germany, amid a 15–20% rise in fuel prices in the EU due to conflicts in the Middle East, a Facebook post claims.

However, there is no visa-free regime for EU citizens in Russia, and sanctions prohibit the import of fuel in canisters from that country. If they frequently travel there to refuel, they could be suspected of smuggling, which makes such “fuel tourism” impossible.

Shortly after the outbreak of the conflict, a piece of disinformation spread on social media claiming that Baron Trump, the youngest son of the U.S. president, had purchased $30 million worth of oil just two days before the start of the war with Iran, and made around $20 million in profit within ten days.

Congratulations are in order

BARON TRUMP BOUGHT OIL WORTH 30 MILLION DOLLARS JUST 2 DAYS BEFORE THE WAR, AND NOW IT IS WORTH 50 MILLION DOLLARS. A PROFIT OF 20 MILLION DOLLARS IN JUST 10 DAYS, the Facebook post says.

However, there is no credible evidence supporting this claim, nor is any report cited. A Google search shows only similar posts circulating on social media, with no reputable source having reported the rumor as fact. Had the son of a sitting U.S. president made such a move, major international media outlets would almost certainly have covered it.

Posts have also been circulating on social media claiming that Iran has officially declared war on the European Union.

IRAN HAS OFFICIALLY DECLARED WAR ON THE EU
(lucky we are not in the EU), a Facebook post claims.

However, such a thing is not reported by relevant world media outlets, and the EU is not a sovereign state, which according to international law is a prerequisite for someone to declare war. Iran is taking measures against the EU or its member states and is issuing threats to them, but this is not an official declaration of war.

 

In another post, it is claimed that Iran carried out an attack on a U.S. air base in Incirlik.

IRAN CARRIED OUT ATTACKS ON A U.S. BASE IN TURKEY! “First footage of the attacks on the U.S. air base Incirlik in Turkey, the Facebook post states.

The post also shares a video in which a reporter speaking in Turkish reports on some kind of explosion. In the background, black smoke can be seen rising behind some buildings.

However, the claim in the post is not true. When the video is listened to carefully, it becomes clear that the reporter from “Haber Global” is reporting from a neighborhood near Aleppo, Syria. He shared the video on his Instagram profile on January 10, 2026.

Also, a Facebook post falsely claimed that Iran issued a 24-hour ultimatum for the evacuation of Tel Aviv. This claim, allegedly made by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is not supported by verifiable facts nor reported by reputable fact-checkers or mainstream media outlets. If Iran had indeed issued such a direct 24-hour evacuation ultimatum for a city of millions like Tel Aviv, it would have been the top global news story across major international media outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN). However, no relevant media outlet has reported anything of the sort.

Posts were also shared in which Iran is described as an innocent victim, drawing a false parallel with the war in Ukraine. In that context, a Facebook post accuses double standards, arguing that some people show sympathy for Zelensky and his resistance against Russia, but not for Iran and its resistance against the United States and Israel.

However, that comparison is false–unlike Ukraine, Iran is not an innocent victim of aggression. It sponsors terrorists (Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis), spreads hatred toward the United States, Israel, and Sunnis, supports Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, and even oppresses its own people while also being suspected of developing nuclear weapons.

 

Is the end of the war in Iran in sight?

The war in the Middle East has been ongoing for more than a month. The two-week ceasefire brought some relief, but it is still too early to say that the end of the conflict is in sight. The IMF warns that even if the war were to end immediately, its consequences would be significant—it would lead to higher inflation and slower global economic growth.

After the United States and Iran agreed overnight (7–8 April) to a conditional two-week ceasefire, accompanied by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of the world’s oil exports pass—global oil prices fell below $100 per barrel. The breakthrough came shortly before the expiration of an ultimatum demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face large-scale attacks on its civilian infrastructure. “This will be a double sided ceasefire!” he wrote on social media, after earlier on Tuesday declaring that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if his demands were not met. Iran said it would halt its attacks if the attacks against it also ceased, adding that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible for two weeks in coordination with the Iranian armed forces.

However, several Gulf countries detected missile launches and drone attacks, or issued warnings urging civilians to seek shelter. The war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other saw the steepest monthly increase in oil prices on record in March, with crude prices surging by more than 50%. Global forecasts remain cautious, with the key question being whether the next two weeks will bring any meaningful progress in negotiations.

This article was produced in 2026 for the project Prebunking at Scale, with support from the European Fact-Checking Standards Network.

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