Why Ukraine has not held and cannot hold elections during the ongoing war

Russia has repeatedly called for elections in Ukraine–and more recently, the United States as well, following Donald Trump’s inauguration–accusing Zelensky of being an illegitimate president and even a dictator. Calls for elections and Zelensky’s resignation are also spreading across social networks in our country, where Kremlin supporters are claiming that elections can be held in Ukraine despite the war that has been raging for more than three years. Even beyond the legal issues (the Ukrainian Constitution prohibits holding elections while martial law is in force), there are practical obstacles that would simply be impossible to overcome

 

Author: Ana Anastasovska

 

Volodymyr Zelensky became the president of Ukraine on May 20, 2019. If the situation in Ukraine were calm, that is, if there were no unprovoked military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, then new presidential elections would have been held at the end of March 2024. However, in a state of war, all elections in Ukraine are stopped, so the president and the Verkhovna Rada continue to work, and thus their legitimacy has not expired, nor has Zelensky’s mandate.

President Zelensky is constantly faced with the question: When will Ukraine hold the presidential elections that were interrupted by the Russian invasion over three years ago? The answer remains the same: elections will take place once martial law in the country is lifted.

Russia has repeatedly called for elections in Ukraine–and more recently, the United States as well, following Donald Trump’s inauguration–accusing Zelensky of being an illegitimate president and even a dictator, a topic on which Truthmeter.mk already wrote in an extensive analysis.

Calls for elections and Zelensky’s resignation are also spreading across social networks in our country, where Kremlin supporters are claiming that elections can be held in Ukraine despite the country entering its fourth year of war.

“If you can have concerts like this in Kyiv, why can’t Zelensky hold elections?” says one post sharing a video of young people partying in a nightclub.

Another post, analyzing Putin’s moves, points out:

Putin visited the Headquarters and soldiers in the Kursk region in military uniform! By the way, the Americans proposed an urgent 30-day peace between Ukraine and Russia. The proposal is a double-edged sword. Why? Because Ukraine will be flooded with weapons again by the West + they will certainly bring in the army and then the war will escalate. My opinion is that PUTIN will not accept the proposal without a deep analysis and the requirements: Ukraine to demilitarize, Elections in Ukraine, Ukraine cannot be a member of NATO, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson which are part of the Constitution of the Russian Federation

 

Why hasn’t Ukraine held elections since the start of the war?

The next elections in Ukraine for deputies of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) were initially scheduled for October 29, 2023, with campaigning set to begin 60 days prior. Presidential elections, under normal circumstances, would have been held at the end of March 2024.

These regularly scheduled elections were disrupted by martial law declared in 2022, at the start of the full-scale Russian invasion. According to Ukraine’s constitution, it is not legal to hold national elections during a period of martial law, Foreign Policy noted in its 2023 analysis.

Article 83 of the Ukrainian Constitution states that if the mandate of the Verkhovna Rada expires during martial law, it shall be automatically extended until a new Rada convenes after martial law ends. Article 19 of the Ukrainian Law on Martial Law explicitly prohibits the holding of national elections.

However, even beyond the legal issues, there are practical obstacles that would simply be impossible to overcome. The simplest is the fact that Ukraine is fighting a war in which the entire country is at any given moment the target of Russian attacks. Air raid warnings across the country are frequent and can last anywhere from 20 minutes to several hours.

 

Security breach, mass displacement

As Foreign Policy writes , Ukraine has a system of robust procedures to ensure the integrity of the voting process. All ballot boxes must be visible by observers and members of the precinct electoral committee at all times so that no stuffing of ballots or other malfeasance can take place. Similarly, the counting of ballots must occur in a single sitting in sight of all observers and committee members. Therefore, constant oversight of ballots, voter lists, and other important documents cannot be maintained while all participants in the election process shuffle off to the bomb shelters.

Ukraine cannot provide fair access to the ballot when the act of going to cast one’s ballot carries varying levels of risk across the country. Harder-hit areas may not even be able to hold elections directly after martial law ends because of issues of safety (including the prevalence of mines), access (such as destruction of polling locations), and disruptions to key electoral resources (such as outdated voter lists and mass amounts of displaced persons).

Even if the Ukrainian government ignored the security risks, it would be impossible to establish a sufficient democratic mandate in such conditions due to the massive displacement of Ukrainians across the country, the continent, and the world. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, about 4 million of them have been displaced to other areas of Ukraine (as internally displaced persons, or IDPs), while almost 7 million have fled abroad as refugees.  This is the largest displacement of people since World War II.
Ukraine’s State Voter Registry (SVR) has not been updated since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

 

People in occupied territories cannot vote

As of June 2024, 4.5 million adult Ukrainians remained in Russian-occupied territories, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Reintegration. None of them would be able to vote, as Ukrainian authorities lack physical access to these areas, making it impossible to establish polling stations, transport ballots, count votes, or ensure oversight of the election process. Any attempts to organize voting there would either mean a lack of genuine participation or manipulation by Russian occupiers, says Ukrainer.net

In addition to technical issues, there is a direct threat to the safety of voters. Russian occupying authorities tightly control the population, using repression and persecution against anyone deemed disloyal. People may be intimidated, abducted, arrested, or even deported for any sign of support for Ukraine. Election commission members would also be at risk, as occupiers could force them to cooperate or even eliminate them physically.

Moreover, occupied territories suffer from extreme information isolation. Ukrainian political parties, media outlets, and civil society groups cannot operate freely, depriving residents of access to accurate information about elections and candidates. Instead, they are subjected to relentless Russian propaganda that distorts reality and enforces psychological pressure.

Ultimately, Russia could exploit elections to consolidate its control. Allowing residents of the occupied territories to vote carries the risk that their votes would be falsified, or that the occupying authorities would create their own forged “results” for propaganda purposes. This is why fair elections can only take place after full de-occupation and the restoration of Ukrainian control over the territories, concludes Ukrainer.net

 

 

Military personnel cannot vote or run for office

The Ukrainian military consists of 880,000 soldiers, many of whom are constantly in combat zones, where there is no opportunity to focus on the election process, let alone exercise their right to run for office. Even if election commissions tried to organize voting in the field, it would create additional security risks, as these polling stations would become targets for Russian attacks. Additionally, a large portion of the military moves locations daily, or even multiple times a day. This means that even if elections were held in some military units, a significant number of soldiers would still be excluded from the process.

Given the realities of life and combat on the frontlines, ensuring the secrecy of the vote is extremely difficult, which could undermine the integrity of the process.

 

Lack of democratic conditions

For elections to be held properly, democratic conditions must be established, including free activity of media outlets, political parties, and civil society organizations, as well as parliamentary consensus on election rules. This requires additional time to transition from martial law to the election period.

Elections are not only about expressing political will—they involve preparation and organization. Equally important are tasks critical in a post-war environment: election commissions, secure voting facilities, cyber-attack-proof information systems, and ensuring transparency and security, Kyiv Independent states in its analysis.

The biggest challenge to electoral democracy in Ukraine is interference from Russia, which will use all possible means: from cyberattacks to direct voter bribery, from disinformation to dividing society and discrediting candidates that Russian authorities find unacceptable. Ukraine–and its government and society–must prepare for such interference to protect its sovereignty, democracy and freedom, which are defended on the battlefield. This preparation requires sufficient time, independent risk assessment and a strengthened mechanism to counter illegal interference in elections.

Ukraine would not be the first democracy to forgo voting during a fight for its life. The United Kingdom postponed its parliamentary elections while it was fighting for its survival against Nazi Germany, while Canada–despite not seeing wartime action on its own soil–postponed parliamentary elections during both world wars.

On the other hand, it is worth noting that war (participation in it) is no guarantee of electoral victory. Despite Winston Churchill’s high popularity, his Conservative party lost the first post-war election in Great Britain.

 

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